Traduction de «erreur de prévision ex ante » (Français → Anglais) :

ex ante predictor [ ex ante forecast ]

standard error of prediction

- inform on a regular basis the Budgetary authority by Member States on the outcome (and errors) of the forecast inquiry.

43. Considers that fiscal multipliers are difficult to assess with certainty; recalls in this respect that the IMF admitted to underestimating the fiscal multiplier in its growth forecasts prior to October 2012; notes that this period encompasses the conclusions of all but one of the initial memoranda of understanding under enquiry in this report; recalls that the European Commission stated in November 2012 that forecast errors were not due to the underestimation of fiscal multipliers; points out however that the Commission stated in its reply to the questionnaire that ‘fiscal multipliers tend to be larger at the current juncture tha ...[+++]n in normal times’; understands that fiscal multipliers are partly endogenous and evolve in changing macroeconomic conditions; points out that this expression of public disagreement between the European Commission and the IMF on the size of the fiscal multiplier was not followed up with a joint stance being taken by the troika;

43. Considers that fiscal multipliers are difficult to assess with certainty; recalls in this respect that the IMF admitted to underestimating the fiscal multiplier in its growth forecasts prior to October 2012; notes that this period encompasses the conclusions of all but one of the initial memoranda of understanding under enquiry in this report; recalls that the European Commission stated in November 2012 that forecast errors were not due to the underestimation of fiscal multipliers; points out however that the Commission stated in its reply to the questionnaire that "fiscal multipliers tend to be larger at the current juncture tha ...[+++]n in normal times"; understands that fiscal multipliers are partly endogenous and evolve in changing macroeconomic conditions; points out that this expression of public disagreement between the European Commission and the IMF on the size of the fiscal multiplier was not followed up with a joint stance being taken by the troika;

17. Highlights the fact that the Annual Growth Survey is based on the forecasts prepared by the Commission in the autumn; emphasises, therefore, the need to take potential forecast errors into account, as they may have consequences for the budgetary adjustment required from the Member States;